La speculazione in questi giorni (oggi sta concedendo una breve tregua) si sta accanendo nuovamente contro i cosiddetti PIGS: paesi europei ad alto rischio di default come Irlanda, Portogallo, Spagna e Italia, oltre alla già saltata e salvata Grecia.
Non tutto il male viene per nuocere perchè l’abbassamento dell’euro che consegue a questa ondata di speculazione farà certamente bene all’economia del contiente, frenata in questi mesi anche dalla corsa dells ua valuta.
Ciò che i grandi speculatori sembrano ignorare, almeno per ora, è che al di là delle pessime inanze federali USA, il maggiore degli stati uniti è in una situazione non migliore dei tanto decantati PIGS e potrebbe presto dichiarare bancarotta.
Riportiamo di seguito un estratto delle recenti dichiarazioni di Chris Whalen, autore di un libro (Inflated) con introduzione di Nuoriel Roubini:
California Will Default On Its Debt, Says Chris Whalen.
Municipal bonds have plummeted in recent days, as investors have suddenly focused on huge state and city budget deficits that there’s no easy way to fix.
Nowhere has this collapse been more visible than California, which faces a massive $25 billion shortfall and red ink for as far as the eye can see.
After years in which every looming financial crisis has been met with a government bailout, you might think that the same solution awaits California, as well as all the other states that have huge obligations that they can’t afford to meet.
But this time that may not happen, says Chris Whalen, a financial industry analyst and Managing Director of Institutional Risk Analytics.
In fact, Whalen thinks that California will default on its debt—hammering all the pension funds and other investors who have loaded up on apparently safe state bonds.
The state won’t immediately default, Whalen says. It will start by issuing the same sort of IOUs that it issued to by itself time during its budget crisis last year. But, eventually, the debts will have to be restructured, and this will result in those who own California’s bonds receiving less than 100 cents on the dollar.
Why won’t California just get a bailout?
Because the Republicans now control Congress, Whalen says. And also because, if California gets bailed out, dozens of other states will immediately line up with their hands out. The public is fed up with bailouts, Whalen says—and eventually, the country will be forced to face up to its bad debts and write them off.
Of course, if Whalen is right, the country could have a major crisis on its hands. California is hardly the only state in trouble (click here to see the worst ones), and pension funds and other «safe» investments that Americans depend on will get hammered if states begin to default.
Fixing state and local obligations will also require the renegotiation of pensions and salaries that government workers have long since taken for granted. And they certainly won’t give those up without a fight.
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