That’s why I’m going to buy Italy’s 30y bond

If you have listened to recent rumours, ECB is going to cut deposit rate from -0.20 to -0.30 (some argue that a deposit rate cut should even be larger, reaching the -0.40 level). Mario Draghi will announce it at next meeting, on Dec. 3rd 2015. At the same time, I think, ECB will amend the 60-billion-euro asset purchase programme, to a 70 billion euro level.

The ECB last month raised the prospect of more monetary easing at its Dec. 3 meeting to combat ultra-low inflation, which is at risk of undershooting the target of nearly 2 percent as far ahead as 2017 due to low commodity prices and weak growth.

We know that this rate cut aims to discourage banks from parking money at the central bank and start lending to real economy and generate growth.
But to me ECB wants to weaken the currency as cash leaves the euro area in search of higher returns: this will boost inflation as imports become more expensive and also will push export to non-euro area: don’t you think the 1.01-1.02 level for euro-dollar is not so much far away from here?

If you remember, the ECB cut its deposit rate to -0.2 percent in September 2014 and said it could not go any lower. However, other central banks have cut further, including the Swiss and Danish central banks to -0.75 percent, showing that deeper cuts are possible. But,if so, why peripherals bond in the euro area are widening their spreads, expecially in the long end of the curve?

I see now 30y BTP going up to 2,9% yield, when CDS on Italian Debt (cost of insurance against Italian default) are going down to 97 bps at the same time ! (see the table below).

Italy: 30y yeld (white line) and CDS 5y (red line)

This is so unusual. Usually, when CDS go up, also yields are going up.
Fears of FED’s hike cannot influence italy’s BTP for long. So, I think this is a buy opportunity for BTP 1/9/2046 3.1/4 % which recently has gone down to 107 level (2.92% yield). I’m sure this bond easily will get back to 115 level (2.55% yield) when ECB will start to implement QE2 in January 2016.(see table below)

BTP 3.25% 1/9/2046 from May 2015 to Nov. 2015